May 13, 2026 10:36 PM
PETER ZEIHAN (geopolitics)
https://youtu.be/jDLk5_Jz2B8
VIDEO INTRO: Today we're taking a question from the Patreon crowd, specifically why the US can't escort tankers and civilian ships like them to and from the Persian Gulf like we did back in the 1980s during the Tanker War.
Well, three big differences. First is the nature of the conflict. The last time around in the Tanker War, the United States was a latecomer. It was originally a conflict that was a subset of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 to 1988.
And by the time we got to the tail of that conflict, both sides were trying to destroy the other's economic opportunities. And since they lacked the military capability to make a meaningful pushes towards oil production, they went after concentrations like the tankers.
So you had Iraqi aircraft that were attacking Iranian tankers. And the Iranians would use a combination of surface ships, speedboats, and missiles like the Chinese Silkworm to go after Iraqi tankers. And everyone else in the straight was just kind of caught in the crossfire.
Most of the damage done, most of the attacks were in the northern part of the Gulf where most of the oil was originally exported. And so the United States came in with an aircraft carrier battle group, put it in the Gulf along with multiple task forces at any time involving 40 to 80 ships.
And some ships like Kuwaiti tankers would be reflagged and others would just be escorted. And each cluster typically had five destroyers and a number of coast guard cutters assigned to it. They would go in big convoys. That's all different this time.
This time it's a direct conflict between the United States and Iran. And Iran has chosen shutting down the Strait as a direct means of attack. And the United States has chosen shutting down Iranian shipments as a direct means of attack. So unlike last time when the Strait itself was open and the Iranians and the Iraqis were selective in their targets, now Iran is willing to attack pretty much anything and the United States is blocking all shipments from all Iranian ports.
[...] Second, the nature of the US Navy is very different. Back then the United States had a 500 plus ship navy. Today we're under 300. And while today's ships are faster and tougher and far more lethal, they are fewer in number [and the Coast Guard has been whittled down and gutted over the past 40 years]....
This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War ... https://youtu.be/jDLk5_Jz2B8
https://youtu.be/jDLk5_Jz2B8
VIDEO INTRO: Today we're taking a question from the Patreon crowd, specifically why the US can't escort tankers and civilian ships like them to and from the Persian Gulf like we did back in the 1980s during the Tanker War.
Well, three big differences. First is the nature of the conflict. The last time around in the Tanker War, the United States was a latecomer. It was originally a conflict that was a subset of the Iran-Iraq war of 1980 to 1988.
And by the time we got to the tail of that conflict, both sides were trying to destroy the other's economic opportunities. And since they lacked the military capability to make a meaningful pushes towards oil production, they went after concentrations like the tankers.
So you had Iraqi aircraft that were attacking Iranian tankers. And the Iranians would use a combination of surface ships, speedboats, and missiles like the Chinese Silkworm to go after Iraqi tankers. And everyone else in the straight was just kind of caught in the crossfire.
Most of the damage done, most of the attacks were in the northern part of the Gulf where most of the oil was originally exported. And so the United States came in with an aircraft carrier battle group, put it in the Gulf along with multiple task forces at any time involving 40 to 80 ships.
And some ships like Kuwaiti tankers would be reflagged and others would just be escorted. And each cluster typically had five destroyers and a number of coast guard cutters assigned to it. They would go in big convoys. That's all different this time.
This time it's a direct conflict between the United States and Iran. And Iran has chosen shutting down the Strait as a direct means of attack. And the United States has chosen shutting down Iranian shipments as a direct means of attack. So unlike last time when the Strait itself was open and the Iranians and the Iraqis were selective in their targets, now Iran is willing to attack pretty much anything and the United States is blocking all shipments from all Iranian ports.
[...] Second, the nature of the US Navy is very different. Back then the United States had a 500 plus ship navy. Today we're under 300. And while today's ships are faster and tougher and far more lethal, they are fewer in number [and the Coast Guard has been whittled down and gutted over the past 40 years]....
This Ain't Your Father's Tanker War ... https://youtu.be/jDLk5_Jz2B8