Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

Following Survival Lilly's rant
The green energy self-destruction of the German economy (Survival Lilly)
https://www.scivillage.com/thread-19856-...l#pid81998

Prices are Euro .. I've change the Euro thing to (very similar) $ to avoid the what's that? thing. Mostly taken from Pi AI.

Generators bid how much electricity they can supply and at what price (per MWh), for each hour of the day - usually a day ahead.
The grid operator stacks all bids from cheapest to most expensive and accepts them until demand is met.
The last (most expensive) generator needed sets the market clearing price — and all accepted generators get paid that price.
So even if wind bids $0 or negative, if gas is the last one in at $80, everyone gets $80.
This is called uniform pricing — it rewards being cheap [?], but pays everyone the same.

Onshore wind: $40–60/MWh
Solar PV (utility): $50–70/MWh
Nuclear: $90–130/MWh (high upfront, low fuel)
Coal: $70–100/MWh (varies with carbon costs)
Gas (CCGT): $60–90/MWh (highly dependent on gas prices)
Oil (diesel/gensets): $100–180/MWh (rarely used for grid power)

Contract for Difference (CfD) is a long-term agreement between a generator (like a nuclear or wind farm) and the government (or a state-backed counterparty).

The generator gets a "strike price" — a guaranteed price per MWh (e.g., $120/MWh for Hinkley Point C in the UK).
Every year, the average wholesale market price is calculated.
If the market price is below the strike price, the government pays the difference to the generator.
If the market price is above the strike price, the generator pays the difference back.

---

Nuclear typically bids $0 to be first in line to supply (they can't NOT supply).

Generators can bid a negative value - it can be cheaper to run plant at a loss than shut down and restart. In 2024 Germany had 438 hours (nearly three weeks) with negatively priced electricity .. folks got paid to use electricity .. at least in principle.

So the problem is a variable supply and a demand that doesn't respond to the supply. Consumers pay through the nose for the privilege of paying the same rate regardless of the actual cost of electricity. Given a typical (?) energy bill of (say) $2,000 .. a $200 gizmo might well save 30% annually (that would be $600) .. you don't want it? - that's on you - don't moan about it though.

Thanks to Pi AI.

In the UK we have an example of coal fired power stations being asked [nicely?] to keep their plant running in case of need. After a winter when only one of three plants was actually called on to generate the supplier demolished the power stations the following summer and that was the end of that little game. The EU seems to be reluctant to allow state subsidies for power generation which is probably another reason why Germany finds itself in such a mess.

Germany does seem to have fouled up more than most..

"The business case for the new gas plants [expected to be online in 2031], which are set to run during brief time periods, can only be guaranteed with additional state support, which is why the government is negotiating a state aid scheme with the European Commission. The EU has strict conditions for member states seeking to provide state support, including in the energy sector."

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/ger...ng-eu-deal

The new 2031 power stations will (optionally) use Green hydrogen which (as suggested by CC in another thread) may well be a fairy tale - but there it is.

The UK and many other countries supplied homes with 'town gas' .. many towns having their own 'gas station' which made the gas from coal. Town gas being roughly 50% hydrogen this does show hydrogen gas can be distributed to homes over a local network of pipes. As to whether this would be worth doing is another matter.

(Mar 17, 2026 05:13 PM)confused2 Wrote: [ -> ]In the UK we have an example of coal fired power stations being asked [nicely?] to keep their plant running in case of need. After a winter when only one of three plants was actually called on to generate the supplier demolished the power stations the following summer and that was the end of that little game. The EU seems to be reluctant to allow state subsidies for power generation which is probably another reason why Germany finds itself in such a mess.

Germany does seem to have fouled up more than most..

"The business case for the new gas plants [expected to be online in 2031], which are set to run during brief time periods, can only be guaranteed with additional state support, which is why the government is negotiating a state aid scheme with the European Commission. The EU has strict conditions for member states seeking to provide state support, including in the energy sector."

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/ger...ng-eu-deal

The new 2031 power stations will (optionally) use Green hydrogen which (as suggested by CC in another thread) may well be a fairy tale - but there it is.

China produces most of the world's hydrogen, "of which more than 99% is made from fossil fuel, releasing CO2" (in 2021). Recently, though, its government did give green hydrogen production a priority.

Germany's green hydrogen industry doesn't have enough current demand to catch-up with China or avoid being drowned by the latter's eventual exports. If instead Germany was already producing hydrogen at the levels it will need in the late 2030s to 2045 (to replace natural gas in power plants and other machinery expected to use hydrogen), even more electricity would have to be diverted from the conventional manufacturing sector and residents during the existing renewable energy crunch.

Why time is running out for Germany's green hydrogen industry
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cze60epnde0o

Green hydrogen alone won’t save Germany’s heavy industry
https://americangerman.institute/2025/01...-industry/

EXCERPTS: First, expanding production capacity in Germany is exceedingly difficult. Green hydrogen production requires abundant renewable energy. However, stringent regulations protract the construction of more renewables. And the renewables that do get built must cope with rising demand induced by electrification in other sectors and thus cannot fuel green hydrogen production.

Second, green hydrogen is economically uncompetitive. The technology behind green hydrogen production, electrolysis, is expensive and inefficient. Expanding production capacity requires building many such electrolyser units at considerable costs. This in turn necessitates high selling prices for green hydrogen to break even, which disincentivizes end users from switching to green hydrogen. As long as fossil fuels remain cheaper, companies have little incentive to switch to alternative fuels. Capillary electrolysers hold transformative potential, but are far from technological maturity. Cost-competitive production will likely remain elusive for years to come.

Third, importing green hydrogen is unrealistic. Shipping hydrogen is dangerous and inefficient due to its chemical properties, making imports from partner states impractical. Transporting hydrogen requires liquefying and supercooling it to about -423 degrees Fahrenheit. There are currently no market-ready shipping vessels that can accommodate these constraints. Research efforts investigating maritime hydrogen transportation have thus far not gained much steam and remain localized. Germany therefore faces a glaring supply gap, as foreign producers cannot export to the German market.

Transportation alternatives exist, such as processing green hydrogen into transportable ammonia. However, shipping capacities for ammonia are limited and a massive—and costly—effort will be required to construct transportation vessels. Germany needs a structural transformation toward future-proof industries that emit little emissions and provide the jobs of tomorrow.To complicate matters even more Germany also faces issues with its import infrastructure.

Quote:The UK and many other countries supplied homes with 'town gas' .. many towns having their own 'gas station' which made the gas from coal. Town gas being roughly 50% hydrogen this does show hydrogen gas can be distributed to homes over a local network of pipes.  As to whether this would be worth doing is another matter.

Apparently town gas was the only gas at one time, before natural gas imports and the North Sea interfered. Very toxic and great for suicides (Sylvia Plath relied on her oven to get the job done back in '63). Lots of other useful compounds made from its waste.