Mar 7, 2026 06:14 AM
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6315960
Analysts say China’s recent defense warnings against Taiwan may be tempered by the US war in Iran, which has revealed Washington’s long-range strike power, Time reported Friday. The article by Charlie Campbell notes that the conflict has consumed US advanced weapons, raising concerns in Taiwan, Ukraine, and Washington about military readiness.
A Tuesday closed-door briefing with US officials and lawmakers questioned available US stockpiles. Observers warned that Chinese leader Xi Jinping could see US distraction as an opening to act against Taiwan. Xi has called unification with Taiwan a historic mission, and observers noted that US President Donald Trump’s transactional style and inconsistent stance on Russia might embolden Beijing.
University of London School of Oriental and African Studies Director Steve Tsang said even if the People’s Liberation Army is not fully ready, it is possible Xi could strike Taiwan while US munitions are depleted. However, other signs suggest the war has reinforced US deterrence and Taiwan’s de facto independence.
Within four days of the Iranian conflict starting, US forces struck nearly 2,000 targets, including 16 ships and a submarine, sinking an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka. The military also executed decapitation strikes against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and key aides, demonstrating intelligence and precision unmatched by China.
Australian National University political scientist Sung Wen-ti commented that the strikes show that the decapitation scenario is real and could worry Beijing. The US military’s success contrasts with the failures of Chinese equipment supplied to Iran and Venezuela.
Reports say Iran purchased kamikaze drones and air-defense systems from China and negotiations for advanced anti-ship missiles were ongoing. Chong Ja Ian, a Singapore-based international relations expert, said Beijing was somewhat surprised by US capabilities and its complex operations.
The war has also exposed China’s limits diplomatically. Beijing, which brokered the 2023 Tehran-Riyadh normalization, has been confined to issuing condemnations and sending “peace envoys,” showing its limited influence over regional proxies. Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said China is “proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies.”
Energy risks compound China’s challenges. The country relies on the Middle East for half its oil and nearly a third of its gas. The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted imports, making China vulnerable despite its reserves and green energy transition.
The latest US National Defense Strategy reaffirms a denial and deterrence posture along the first island chain, including Taiwan. Park Strategies Senior Vice President Sean King said Xi likely assumes the US will defend Taiwan, making an attack unlikely for now.
Analysts say China’s recent defense warnings against Taiwan may be tempered by the US war in Iran, which has revealed Washington’s long-range strike power, Time reported Friday. The article by Charlie Campbell notes that the conflict has consumed US advanced weapons, raising concerns in Taiwan, Ukraine, and Washington about military readiness.
A Tuesday closed-door briefing with US officials and lawmakers questioned available US stockpiles. Observers warned that Chinese leader Xi Jinping could see US distraction as an opening to act against Taiwan. Xi has called unification with Taiwan a historic mission, and observers noted that US President Donald Trump’s transactional style and inconsistent stance on Russia might embolden Beijing.
University of London School of Oriental and African Studies Director Steve Tsang said even if the People’s Liberation Army is not fully ready, it is possible Xi could strike Taiwan while US munitions are depleted. However, other signs suggest the war has reinforced US deterrence and Taiwan’s de facto independence.
Within four days of the Iranian conflict starting, US forces struck nearly 2,000 targets, including 16 ships and a submarine, sinking an Iranian frigate near Sri Lanka. The military also executed decapitation strikes against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and key aides, demonstrating intelligence and precision unmatched by China.
Australian National University political scientist Sung Wen-ti commented that the strikes show that the decapitation scenario is real and could worry Beijing. The US military’s success contrasts with the failures of Chinese equipment supplied to Iran and Venezuela.
Reports say Iran purchased kamikaze drones and air-defense systems from China and negotiations for advanced anti-ship missiles were ongoing. Chong Ja Ian, a Singapore-based international relations expert, said Beijing was somewhat surprised by US capabilities and its complex operations.
The war has also exposed China’s limits diplomatically. Beijing, which brokered the 2023 Tehran-Riyadh normalization, has been confined to issuing condemnations and sending “peace envoys,” showing its limited influence over regional proxies. Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said China is “proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies.”
Energy risks compound China’s challenges. The country relies on the Middle East for half its oil and nearly a third of its gas. The Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted imports, making China vulnerable despite its reserves and green energy transition.
The latest US National Defense Strategy reaffirms a denial and deterrence posture along the first island chain, including Taiwan. Park Strategies Senior Vice President Sean King said Xi likely assumes the US will defend Taiwan, making an attack unlikely for now.