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Full Version: Evidence isn’t binary: What the NFL teaches us about scientific confidence
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https://beyondtheabstract.substack.com/p...non-binary

EXCERPT: There is no such thing as a perfect research paper… or if a perfect study does exist, it is exceedingly rare… Some might even say, suspicious.

Every study has limitations—measurement error, bias, confounding, underpowered subgroups, imperfect outcomes, or analytical decisions that could reasonably have gone another way. There will be dropouts, short timeframes, and various assumptions—each of which can be called into question.

A high-quality study doesn’t mean flawless. It means the flaws are smaller, better understood, and less likely to overturn the main conclusion.

Just as great NFL teams will usually (but not always), beat terrible teams, stronger studies are more likely to be true—not guaranteed to be true. On the flip side, sometimes a bad team can defeat the reigning Super Bowl champion; and occasionally, a low-quality study will reveal a signal that survives more rigorous replication... (MORE - missing details)