Oct 8, 2025 02:39 AM
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1101116
INTRO: The U.S. has traditionally been an agricultural powerhouse with a healthy trade surplus. But global dynamics are changing due to a confluence of political and economic factors. U.S. agricultural imports now exceed exports, and the trade deficit is projected to worsen in the coming years. In a new study, researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University discuss recent developments affecting the U.S. trade in row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.
“For most of recent history, the U.S. was a net agricultural exporter. But in the last couple of years, that has reversed, and what used to be a persistent surplus has turned into a persistent and growing deficit, where we're importing much more than we export. Current projections estimate that the agricultural trade deficit will reach $49 billion by the end of 2025,” said lead author William Ridley, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U. of I. He conducted the study with Stephen Devadoss, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Texas Tech.
The researchers noted that imports have increased considerably, particularly fruits and vegetables, such as avocados from Mexico, and canola oil from Canada. The U.S. continues to be a major producer of agricultural commodities, like corn, oilseeds, and cotton, but exports are stagnant or declining.
“Row crops are the backbone of U.S. agricultural exports, but markets are shifting as trade conflicts create uncertainty and instability. One of the main factors causing exports to nosedive is the ongoing trade dispute with China,” Ridley said.
As the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities such as soybean, wheat, corn, and cotton. These products were strategically targeted by China due to their importance for U.S. exports, and because they are primarily produced in states that support the Republican administration, the researchers noted.
From 2017 to 2018, the trade dispute resulted in U.S.–China export values declining by $9 billion (73%) for soybeans, $431.7 million (67%) for wheat, $92.6 million (61%) for corn, and $312.5 million (37%) for sorghum. The total value of lost agricultural exports amounted to around $14 billion.
The Phase One trade deal that was negotiated in 2020 briefly increased Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S., but trade quickly collapsed again, and China has effectively stopped buying soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum from the U.S., after finding trade partners elsewhere.
At the same time, the U.S. is losing its competitive edge to other big grain producers like Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine... (MORE - details, no ads)
INTRO: The U.S. has traditionally been an agricultural powerhouse with a healthy trade surplus. But global dynamics are changing due to a confluence of political and economic factors. U.S. agricultural imports now exceed exports, and the trade deficit is projected to worsen in the coming years. In a new study, researchers from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University discuss recent developments affecting the U.S. trade in row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton.
“For most of recent history, the U.S. was a net agricultural exporter. But in the last couple of years, that has reversed, and what used to be a persistent surplus has turned into a persistent and growing deficit, where we're importing much more than we export. Current projections estimate that the agricultural trade deficit will reach $49 billion by the end of 2025,” said lead author William Ridley, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, part of the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U. of I. He conducted the study with Stephen Devadoss, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Texas Tech.
The researchers noted that imports have increased considerably, particularly fruits and vegetables, such as avocados from Mexico, and canola oil from Canada. The U.S. continues to be a major producer of agricultural commodities, like corn, oilseeds, and cotton, but exports are stagnant or declining.
“Row crops are the backbone of U.S. agricultural exports, but markets are shifting as trade conflicts create uncertainty and instability. One of the main factors causing exports to nosedive is the ongoing trade dispute with China,” Ridley said.
As the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese imports, China retaliated with tariffs on U.S. agricultural commodities such as soybean, wheat, corn, and cotton. These products were strategically targeted by China due to their importance for U.S. exports, and because they are primarily produced in states that support the Republican administration, the researchers noted.
From 2017 to 2018, the trade dispute resulted in U.S.–China export values declining by $9 billion (73%) for soybeans, $431.7 million (67%) for wheat, $92.6 million (61%) for corn, and $312.5 million (37%) for sorghum. The total value of lost agricultural exports amounted to around $14 billion.
The Phase One trade deal that was negotiated in 2020 briefly increased Chinese agricultural imports from the U.S., but trade quickly collapsed again, and China has effectively stopped buying soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum from the U.S., after finding trade partners elsewhere.
At the same time, the U.S. is losing its competitive edge to other big grain producers like Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine... (MORE - details, no ads)