Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

THE RUBIN REPORT
https://youtu.be/EQPONItmrOo

VIDEO EXCERPTS: And here's Andrew Cuomo, a man who was a failure as a governor, who then was a failure as a mayoral candidate, but he's still in the race [as an independent].

CNN: Would Zohran Mamdani as mayor help or hurt the morale of the NYPD?

CUOMO: If you look at his prior statements, he has said he was part of the "defund the police" movement. He has said that the police are a threat to public safety. They are racists. That he would dismantle the police department.

So these are all very harsh statements. It would be very hard to recruit police who would want to work for a mayor like that.

[...] It's a reality check for all this political theory and political hype that we have going on in this country with the extreme left. They are postulating these theories that have no connection to reality.

Andrew Cuomo, I'm with you on that. [...] The problem is that's exactly why he lost in the primary, because the Democrat base in NYC is a bunch of radicals, right? They are Hamas supporting. They are socialists, and worse than socialists. So, that is nice that you're going on CNN and saying that these people are kind of bananas.

But how are you going to win in New York City? How are you going to stop the Marxist from taking over? I don't think you have a plan, buddy.

Actually, you've already announced that if you lose, you're going to move to Florida...

Cuomo finally calls out insane leftist polices ... https://youtu.be/EQPONItmrOo

(Aug 2, 2025 09:19 PM)C C Wrote: [ -> ]The problem is that's exactly why he lost in the primary, because the Democrat base in NYC is a bunch of radicals, right? They are Hamas supporting. They are socialists, and worse than socialists. So, that is nice that you're going on CNN and saying that these people are kind of bananas.

But how are you going to win in New York City? How are you going to stop the Marxist from taking over? I don't think you have a plan, buddy.

Actually, Mamdani should be fairly easy to beat.

It's true that "the democrat base in NYC is a bunch of radicals". Or at least is dominated by a bunch of radicals. But we shouldn't overlook that Mamdani barely squeaked through the democratic primary.

Now factor in the Republicans in New York City. They are an impotent minority it's true, and often forgotten. But they do represent a significant number of votes.

It's actually interesting to look at Trump's 2024 percentage and at the percentage of non-Hispanic whites in the five NYC boroughs.

Manhattan - Trump 17% NHW 46%
Queens - Trump 36% NHW 22%
Brooklyn - Trump 27% NHW 35%
Bronx - Trump 26% NHW 9%
Staten I. - Trump 64% NHW 56%

Staten Island is something of a NYC outlier in many ways. Not only is it kind of geographically separated, it's the only non-Hispanic white majority borough and Trump won there by more than 60-40!

In the other four boroughs, Trump's percentage of the vote seems to be loosely inversely correlated to the non-Hispanic white percentage. Manhattan is the next whitest borough (46%) while Trump did worst there (17%). The Bronx (AOC's base) has the smallest white percentage (9%) but Trump got a fairly respectable 26% of the vote there. (His Bronx voters can't all have been "white racists".)

What this suggests to me is that the principal radical democratic base in NYC are disproportionately white lefties, probably many of them high earners with prestigious university degrees, working in entertainment, establishment media, publishing or very haute arty jobs in Manhattan. Along with a younger fashionably poor "alternative" population of college students, barristas, loft dwellers who frequent cafes and nightclubs. Probably very few of either are native New Yorkers, but moved there from somewhere else because the lifestyle and the politics appealed to them. (San Francisco and MR's Portland display the same pattern.) The trendy woke lefties share very little in common with the gritty ethnic working class who are more likely to have grown up locally and once upon a time (20th century) were the democratic party's base.

OK, so what does this mean for Mamdani? It means that the radical democratic party base in NYC might be thinner and more fragile than people might think. Its size might be exaggerated by its control of the entertainment, news and opinion media.

If he only holds on to the 50%+ of the democratic vote that he got in the primary, and if the 50%- that voted against him in the democratic primary joined with the Republicans and coalesced around a moderate democratic candidate, then that moderate would win easily.

The problem is that the "moderate" democrats are split between two not-so-moderate rivals, Andrew Cuomo and Eric Adams. (There's also a Republican in the race, Curtis Sliwa the Guardian Angels guy, who might peel off a few percent.) In this situation, where Mamdani heads up the democrats' left base (a minority of the total vote) and faces a divided opposition, he's very likely to win a plurality but not a majority.

But it gets more complicated. NYC uses ranked-choice voting. Who will people who voted for the 3d and 4th place finishers choose as their second choice? My sense is that the dynamic of this election will be Mamdani yes-or-no. So those who voted for one of his opponents are unlikely to mark him as their second choice. So there's a chance that the vote will eventually coalese around Cuomo or Adams as the non-Mamdani guy.

Assuming that neither Andrew Cuomo or Eric Adams is willing to withdraw and throw his support to the other guy, then both of them should say 'Vote for me, but mark the other guy as your second choice'. That might have a decent chance of keeping Mamdani out of city hall.

That's risky though. If too many of the New York voters simply vote Mamdani because he has the 'D' behind his name, which New Yorkers often have a tendency to do, then he will be the one who wins.

Don't know anything about this claim of the NYT endorsing Mamdani, but Elizabeth Warren definitely has. "Socialism attains greatness again" (SAGA) seems to be the new rallying cry of the Party.

Mamdani momentum ... https://youtu.be/i2pZIXydyqI