Mar 7, 2025 01:27 AM
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1076104
INTRO: When El Salvador President Nayib Bukele implemented a controversial crime crackdown three years ago, he inadvertently helped answer one of the key questions in U.S. immigration policy: How much do crime and violence really drive Central American emigration to the United States?
Quite a bit, according to a new study from the Bush School’s Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy. The study found that the crackdown, which significantly reduced killings in El Salvador, also reduced the number of apprehensions/expulsions at the U.S. border by 45% to 67%. Simply put, a country with less violent crime produced fewer migrants.
The research was published in the Journal of Development Economics, the field’s leading publication. The Mosbacher Institute also recently published a companion piece in The Takeaway, a series of articles that translate Mosbacher research for the general public.
Previous research suggested that safety concerns were a key contributor to Central American emigration. But definitive conclusions were difficult to reach because safety considerations were usually entangled with the prospect of migrants seeking jobs and material prosperity.
Bukele removed that hurdle when he ordered a roundup of suspected gang members. The dramatic step did not change economic conditions in El Salvador, leaving the corresponding drop in crime as the only explanation for the drop in migration, according to the study.
The authors say they are not endorsing such crackdowns. Bukele’s order drew international condemnation for allegedly trampling civil liberties with steps such as indiscriminately jailing people without due process. Countering organized crime is important, according to the authors, but such efforts should respect human rights.
“Migration and organized crime are common challenges that demand regional collaboration, including revising the restrictive provisions of U.S. trade agreements with the region,” said Raymond Robertson, one of the study authors and director of the Mosbacher Institute... (MORE - details)
INTRO: When El Salvador President Nayib Bukele implemented a controversial crime crackdown three years ago, he inadvertently helped answer one of the key questions in U.S. immigration policy: How much do crime and violence really drive Central American emigration to the United States?
Quite a bit, according to a new study from the Bush School’s Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy. The study found that the crackdown, which significantly reduced killings in El Salvador, also reduced the number of apprehensions/expulsions at the U.S. border by 45% to 67%. Simply put, a country with less violent crime produced fewer migrants.
The research was published in the Journal of Development Economics, the field’s leading publication. The Mosbacher Institute also recently published a companion piece in The Takeaway, a series of articles that translate Mosbacher research for the general public.
Previous research suggested that safety concerns were a key contributor to Central American emigration. But definitive conclusions were difficult to reach because safety considerations were usually entangled with the prospect of migrants seeking jobs and material prosperity.
Bukele removed that hurdle when he ordered a roundup of suspected gang members. The dramatic step did not change economic conditions in El Salvador, leaving the corresponding drop in crime as the only explanation for the drop in migration, according to the study.
The authors say they are not endorsing such crackdowns. Bukele’s order drew international condemnation for allegedly trampling civil liberties with steps such as indiscriminately jailing people without due process. Countering organized crime is important, according to the authors, but such efforts should respect human rights.
“Migration and organized crime are common challenges that demand regional collaboration, including revising the restrictive provisions of U.S. trade agreements with the region,” said Raymond Robertson, one of the study authors and director of the Mosbacher Institute... (MORE - details)