Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

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SURVIVAL LILLY
https://youtu.be/azKJnjh4xvU

VIDEO EXCERPTS: Today I would like to make a video about the news here in Europe. But first, I would like to make a statement about the assassination attempt on Trump.

[...] Some people already said that Trump might get killed or assassinated, so that he wouldn't become president.

[...] When I saw the video about how he barely missed the head of trump and only shot into the ear, I could not believe how lucky Trump was. And I have to say I'm so happy for Trump, and I'm so relieved that he's still alive.

[...] A good shooter at this distance with an AR-15, you know most people will hit a target the size of a football. But gladly, Trump survived. [...] I'm so happy -- no matter who you are doesn't matter, you don't deserve to die like this.

[...] I really do hope that Trump wins the election. I'm not saying this because I'm politically biased in one or the other direction.

I am saying this because I'm really fearful about what's going on here in Europe. There are signs that the war will spread to other countries of Europe. Trump said that he will stop the war within one week when he becomes president.

So I really hope that he if he becomes president that he keeps his promise and that he will stop the war. I don't care how they will stop it, just stop the war.

[...] I need to show you how the army chief of Poland has publicly urged his people and nation to prepare for a full scale war with Russia...

[...] Meanwhile, in Germany they are talking about the mobilization of 900,000 reservists. So that's a crazy number. Also, here we have [...] the defense minister of Germany, and he wants to get the fittest and the most motivated men to join the German army.

[...] Besides reactivating the military mandatory service, we also want to have women fighting in the Army, and this would counteract any discrimination against the male population.

If people don't want to voluntarily join the military, then something is wrong with the decisions of the politicians.

[...] In this case, politicians never send their own sons and kids to war. They just send the peasants to war to die, because they don't care about us. In my opinion it's very wrong to send women to war, but it's also wrong to send men to war. Because there should be no war at all...

Is Trump the only one who can save Europe?

Quote:Trump said that he will stop the war within one week when he becomes president.

Does this mean withdrawing support for Ukraine? Is that what republican Americans want?

(Jul 16, 2024 06:58 PM)confused2 Wrote: [ -> ]

Quote:Trump said that he will stop the war within one week when he becomes president.

Does this mean withdrawing support for Ukraine? Is that what republican Americans want?

This is merely what "his advisors" have recently proposed:

Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-r...024-06-25/

It's hard to see the Ukrainian leader budging on anything unless he receives some absolutely fabulous recompense package from the US (and Western Europe?)

I have no idea what Republicans want. My sense is that Republicans are deeply split on the issue, with the old-style Bushite "neo-cons" (who never saw a war they didn't want to participate in) favoring pushing ever closer to nuclear confrontation with Russia, while the currently ascendant Trumpist populists take a more "America first" line in which America should only fight to defend vital national interests.

I do think that the Ukraine war could be ended very quickly. (It's far more tractable than the Arab-Israeli conflict.) Here's one possible way to do it:

1. Ceasefire in place, with each side retaining the areas they currently control. This would immediately halt the meat-grinder that's chewing up the young men of both Russia and (even more so) smaller Ukraine. The two countries are locked in a World War I style war-of-attrition that's destroying a entire generation.

To address Russia's legitimate national security concerns that led to the 2022 attack:

2. No NATO membership for Ukraine. That's in the US interest as well, since NATO membership just obligates the US to go to war for other countries. Ukraine obviously wants that, but does the US really want to go to war with nuclear armed Russia over Ukrainian claims to the Donbas, which is not even remotely a vital US interest?

3. No military troops in Ukraine apart from Ukrainian and Russian forces in their respective areas.

4. Limitations on heavy offensive weaponry inside Ukraine for both sides. No limitations on defensive weaponry like anti-tank rockets and air defense missiles.

If that seems to be in Russia's favor (and it is, since it's designed to address Russian concerns about a hostile Ukraine on their border armed to the teeth by NATO) what would Ukraine get in exchange?

5. Ukraine would preserve its independence and would have avoided becoming a Russian satellite state.

6. Ukraine receives a fast-track to European Union membership and a fat and lucrative European trade and foreign-aid deal for post-war rebuilding. Perhaps a guest-worker deal for Ukrainian citizens in the EU.

7. The Ukrainians could enter into a military alliance with the European Union and Britain in which they pledge to come to Ukraine's aid if it is attacked, provided that 3. and 4. are adhered to when Ukraine isn't under attack.

(The Europeans love to insist that the United States must defend Ukraine, but I expect the European tune to change abruptly if that responsibility suddenly became theirs. They would immediately be calling for negotiations.)

Most Republicans only want to support a war that can be won. There is no winning strategy for Ukraine short of full US participation, and that's a non-starter, as it doesn't serve our interests. Having our troops in close proximity to Russia, even without direct engagement, is also a recipe for disaster on a global scale, not just Eastern Europe.

Trump was likely what caused the invasion of Ukraine.

I've mentioned before there should be proof to this "conspiracy" in the form of a telephone call to Putin (Should be recorded/on record considering communications are usually historically referenced) straight after his request to Ukraine about handing over information on Hunter Biden resulted in him being told no by Ukraine. I'm pretty sure he rang Putin to get Ukraine to play ball.

If proven, it would mean Trump was responsible for setting Putin off down this path.

As for "Peace talks", what a load of crap. Putin has no intension of having legitimate talks, he has demands, his mind is set on his goal not compromises. Whether Ukraine did or did not decide to try to have talks, they'd still have to deal with Putin being a complete dick.

(Jul 17, 2024 04:34 AM)stryder Wrote: [ -> ]Trump was likely what caused the invasion of Ukraine.

I've mentioned before there should be proof to this "conspiracy" in the form of a telephone call to Putin (Should be recorded/on record considering communications are usually historically referenced) straight after his request to Ukraine about handing over information on Hunter Biden resulted in him being told no by Ukraine. I'm pretty sure he rang Putin to get Ukraine to play ball.

If proven, it would mean Trump was responsible for setting Putin off down this path.

As for "Peace talks", what a load of crap. Putin has no intension of having legitimate talks, he has demands, his mind is set on his goal not compromises. Whether Ukraine did or did not decide to try to have talks, they'd still have to deal with Putin being a complete dick.

That's moronic twaddle.

Trump was the reason Putin DID NOT invade Ukraine. It took Biden, who proved he was a weakling internationally, with the botched withdraw from Afghanistan, etc. before Russia, China, Hamas, etc. became embolden to act without fear of immediate US reprisals.

Putin's choice could be either accept the conquered borders as they currently stand or risk the US taking all that territory back, perhaps plus Crimea. The only recourse for Putin would be nuclear war. But as evil as he may be, no one thinks he's stupid too.