Jul 3, 2024 04:59 PM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/07/...ane-beryl/
EXCERPT: Writing about the strengthening of Beryl on Sunday, University of Miami atmospheric scientist Brian McNoldy summed up how meteorologists feel observing such a storm so early in the season. "It's hard to communicate how unbelievable this is," he wrote. "With La Niña on the way and the ocean temperatures already looking like the second week of September, this is precisely the type of outlier event that people have been talking about for months heading into this season. When you have an unprecedented favorable environment, you're bound to see unprecedented tropical cyclone activity."
The superlatives for Beryl don't stop there. According to seasonal hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach, Beryl formed farther east in the Atlantic than any previous hurricane on record, beating even the 1933 season (another notorious outlier in terms of activity). That's another sign that the main development region of the Atlantic tropics is heating up way ahead of schedule this year.
Fortunately, Beryl is now likely at its peak intensity. Over the next 24 hours, it should begin to encounter higher levels of wind shear, which is kryptonite for the organization of a tropical cyclone. The hurricane should also start to run into some drier air.
However, Beryl will still probably be a major hurricane when it strikes or passes just south of the Caribbean island of Jamaica on Wednesday. And it will probably remain at hurricane strength when it nears Mexico's Yucatan peninsula late on Thursday or Friday morning. After this, the storm should move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. There, it is unlikely to regain hurricane strength, but it could bring some rain showers to Mexico and Texas. We'll have to see.
The climate changes, storms get stronger
The point here is not really to discuss the threat of Beryl to the United States, which at this point seems in the modest-to-minimal range. Rather, it's the implications of Beryl both for the rest of the Atlantic season and as a harbinger for what to expect from the tropics in a world where we see warmer seas on the regular.
For this year, forecasters have been consistently predicting a hyperactive season due to the combination of roasting sea surface temperatures and the onset of La Niña during the critical months of August, September, and October. That forecast seems to be right on track... (MORE - missing details)
EXCERPT: Writing about the strengthening of Beryl on Sunday, University of Miami atmospheric scientist Brian McNoldy summed up how meteorologists feel observing such a storm so early in the season. "It's hard to communicate how unbelievable this is," he wrote. "With La Niña on the way and the ocean temperatures already looking like the second week of September, this is precisely the type of outlier event that people have been talking about for months heading into this season. When you have an unprecedented favorable environment, you're bound to see unprecedented tropical cyclone activity."
The superlatives for Beryl don't stop there. According to seasonal hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach, Beryl formed farther east in the Atlantic than any previous hurricane on record, beating even the 1933 season (another notorious outlier in terms of activity). That's another sign that the main development region of the Atlantic tropics is heating up way ahead of schedule this year.
Fortunately, Beryl is now likely at its peak intensity. Over the next 24 hours, it should begin to encounter higher levels of wind shear, which is kryptonite for the organization of a tropical cyclone. The hurricane should also start to run into some drier air.
However, Beryl will still probably be a major hurricane when it strikes or passes just south of the Caribbean island of Jamaica on Wednesday. And it will probably remain at hurricane strength when it nears Mexico's Yucatan peninsula late on Thursday or Friday morning. After this, the storm should move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. There, it is unlikely to regain hurricane strength, but it could bring some rain showers to Mexico and Texas. We'll have to see.
The climate changes, storms get stronger
The point here is not really to discuss the threat of Beryl to the United States, which at this point seems in the modest-to-minimal range. Rather, it's the implications of Beryl both for the rest of the Atlantic season and as a harbinger for what to expect from the tropics in a world where we see warmer seas on the regular.
For this year, forecasters have been consistently predicting a hyperactive season due to the combination of roasting sea surface temperatures and the onset of La Niña during the critical months of August, September, and October. That forecast seems to be right on track... (MORE - missing details)