Oct 3, 2023 05:56 PM
https://bigthink.com/starts-with-a-bang/...-syndrome/
KEY POINTS: Over the past 4 years, the number of active satellites in low-Earth orbit have increased by several thousand, with tens of thousands more planned in the coming years. The ultimate nightmare is that we'll experience Kessler syndrome: where a runaway chain reaction of collisions litters low-Earth orbit with millions of pieces of debris, making new launches all but impossible. Currently, Starlink satellites avoid collisions through on-board AI software that tells them how to move. If that software gets knocked offline, such as by space weather, we have no protections against this catastrophe.
EXCERPT: . . . If we fail to prepare, the only option we’ll have is to come up with a clever name for this easily-avoidable catastrophe: I suggest something like “Flaremageddon” for these purposes. Such a natural disaster scenario becomes easy to envision. Imagine that it’s 2035, and we have several tens of thousands of new mega-constellation satellites up there, while at the same time, a series of sunspots appear around the Sun’s equator. A magnetic reconnection event occurs, launching an X-class solar flare with a coronal mass ejection right at Earth. The magnetic field of the Sun, relative to Earth, is oriented so that a geomagnetic storm occurs, knocking out some major electrical grids in the process.
But in space, a large fraction of satellites get bombarded by these energetic particles from the Sun, causing them to become non-responsive. 8 days later, the first satellite-satellite collision occurs. While humanity scrambles to respond appropriately, a second collision occurs, triggering the beginning of a chain reaction. By 2037, the International Space Station is forced to be abandoned, our Earth-monitoring satellites in low-Earth orbit are knocked offline, and the Hubble Space Telescope is destroyed. Tens of millions of pieces of debris then fill low-Earth orbit, making any subsequent launches impossible without the launch vehicle itself experiencing a number of impacts from this debris.
It’s an entirely avoidable disaster, but unless we prepare now, in advance of any foreseeable disasters, we run the risk of mortgaging our entire species’ future in space, all because we failed to take the necessary precautions... (MORE - missing details)
KEY POINTS: Over the past 4 years, the number of active satellites in low-Earth orbit have increased by several thousand, with tens of thousands more planned in the coming years. The ultimate nightmare is that we'll experience Kessler syndrome: where a runaway chain reaction of collisions litters low-Earth orbit with millions of pieces of debris, making new launches all but impossible. Currently, Starlink satellites avoid collisions through on-board AI software that tells them how to move. If that software gets knocked offline, such as by space weather, we have no protections against this catastrophe.
EXCERPT: . . . If we fail to prepare, the only option we’ll have is to come up with a clever name for this easily-avoidable catastrophe: I suggest something like “Flaremageddon” for these purposes. Such a natural disaster scenario becomes easy to envision. Imagine that it’s 2035, and we have several tens of thousands of new mega-constellation satellites up there, while at the same time, a series of sunspots appear around the Sun’s equator. A magnetic reconnection event occurs, launching an X-class solar flare with a coronal mass ejection right at Earth. The magnetic field of the Sun, relative to Earth, is oriented so that a geomagnetic storm occurs, knocking out some major electrical grids in the process.
But in space, a large fraction of satellites get bombarded by these energetic particles from the Sun, causing them to become non-responsive. 8 days later, the first satellite-satellite collision occurs. While humanity scrambles to respond appropriately, a second collision occurs, triggering the beginning of a chain reaction. By 2037, the International Space Station is forced to be abandoned, our Earth-monitoring satellites in low-Earth orbit are knocked offline, and the Hubble Space Telescope is destroyed. Tens of millions of pieces of debris then fill low-Earth orbit, making any subsequent launches impossible without the launch vehicle itself experiencing a number of impacts from this debris.
It’s an entirely avoidable disaster, but unless we prepare now, in advance of any foreseeable disasters, we run the risk of mortgaging our entire species’ future in space, all because we failed to take the necessary precautions... (MORE - missing details)