Oct 18, 2021 07:09 PM
Conclusions Not So NICE: A Critical Analysis of the NICE Evidence review of puberty blockers for children and adolescents with gender dysphoria
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/a-criti...ce-review/
A critical look at the UK’s National Health Service-commissioned review of transgender youth health services and the harm it has caused.
People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors
https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ng-errors/
INTRO: How much time do you spend doing research before you make a decision? The answer for many of us, it turns out, is “hardly any,” even with major investments. Most people make two trips or fewer to a dealership before buying a car. And according to survey results in a 2003 paper by economist Katherine Harris, when picking a doctor, many individuals use recommendations from friends and family rather than consulting other health care professionals or “formal sources” such as employers, articles or Web sites.
We are not necessarily conserving our resources to spend them on bigger decisions either. One in five Americans spends more time planning their upcoming vacation than they do their financial future.
To be sure, some people go over every detail exhaustively before making a choice, and it’s certainly possible to overthink things. But there are also people who are quick to jump to conclusions. This way of thinking is considered a cognitive bias, a term psychologists use to describe a tendency toward a specific mental mistake. In this case, the error is making a call based on the sparsest of evidence.
In our own research, we have found that hasty judgments are often just one part of larger error-prone patterns in behavior and thinking. We’ve also found that people who tend to make such “jumps” in their reasoning may experience a wide range of costs.
To study jumping, we worked with more than 600 people from the general population. Because much of the work on this bias comes from studies of schizophrenia (jumping to conclusions is common among people with the condition), we borrowed a thinking game used in that area of research.
In this game, players encountered someone who was fishing from one of two lakes: in one lake, most of the fish were red, and in the other, most were gray. The fisher would catch one fish at a time and stop only when players thought they could say which lake was being fished. Some players had to see many fish before making a decision. Others, the jumpers, stopped after only one or two.
We also asked participants questions to learn more about their other thinking patterns. We found that the fewer fish a player needed to see, the more errors individuals made in other beliefs, reasoning and decisions... (MORE)
https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/a-criti...ce-review/
A critical look at the UK’s National Health Service-commissioned review of transgender youth health services and the harm it has caused.
People who jump to conclusions show other kinds of thinking errors
https://www.scientificamerican.com/artic...ng-errors/
INTRO: How much time do you spend doing research before you make a decision? The answer for many of us, it turns out, is “hardly any,” even with major investments. Most people make two trips or fewer to a dealership before buying a car. And according to survey results in a 2003 paper by economist Katherine Harris, when picking a doctor, many individuals use recommendations from friends and family rather than consulting other health care professionals or “formal sources” such as employers, articles or Web sites.
We are not necessarily conserving our resources to spend them on bigger decisions either. One in five Americans spends more time planning their upcoming vacation than they do their financial future.
To be sure, some people go over every detail exhaustively before making a choice, and it’s certainly possible to overthink things. But there are also people who are quick to jump to conclusions. This way of thinking is considered a cognitive bias, a term psychologists use to describe a tendency toward a specific mental mistake. In this case, the error is making a call based on the sparsest of evidence.
In our own research, we have found that hasty judgments are often just one part of larger error-prone patterns in behavior and thinking. We’ve also found that people who tend to make such “jumps” in their reasoning may experience a wide range of costs.
To study jumping, we worked with more than 600 people from the general population. Because much of the work on this bias comes from studies of schizophrenia (jumping to conclusions is common among people with the condition), we borrowed a thinking game used in that area of research.
In this game, players encountered someone who was fishing from one of two lakes: in one lake, most of the fish were red, and in the other, most were gray. The fisher would catch one fish at a time and stop only when players thought they could say which lake was being fished. Some players had to see many fish before making a decision. Others, the jumpers, stopped after only one or two.
We also asked participants questions to learn more about their other thinking patterns. We found that the fewer fish a player needed to see, the more errors individuals made in other beliefs, reasoning and decisions... (MORE)