Scivillage.com Casual Discussion Science Forum

CDC: Vaccinated people in two-thirds of the US should mask up
https://www.popsci.com/health/cdc-mask-a...ed-people/

INTRO: The Centers for Disease Control has officially recommended that people living in areas with significant COVID transmission should start wearing masks again, regardless of vaccination status, as the Delta variant blows through the country. School-age kids should also be masking up again, said Rochelle Walensky, the director of the CDC, in a press call on Tuesday afternoon.

Nearly two-thirds of all US counties currently have significant or high levels of COVID transmission and at least one in every five people who are getting COVID are infected with the Delta variant.

This version of the coronavirus is more transmissible than previous variants, and though most cases have been seen in unvaccinated people, the new virus is causing breakthrough cases in some vaccinated individuals. Of the roughly 65,000 breakthrough cases as of July 22, 0.04 percent were in vaccinated people. Walensky noted that although most disease transmission is still occurring in unvaccinated people, even fully vaccinated people can still catch and transmit the virus to others. This is especially important for those visiting immunocompromised people or those who are unable to get vaccinated due to health conditions. In some cases, the CDC is finding that viral loads are similar in breakthrough infections as in infections in unvaccinated people, according to Walensky.

The mask advisory is also in part to try and prevent the coronavirus from accumulating other mutations that would enable it to evade our vaccines, said Walensky. More infected people means more opportunities for SARS-CoV-2 to divide and mutate... (MORE)

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Why some critics think the CDC's messaging on masking is 'astonishingly bad'
https://theweek.com/coronavirus/1003079/...hingly-bad

EXCERPT: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced updated guidance on Tuesday which states that people living in areas with high COVID-19 transmission rates (which is a significant portion of the United States) should once again wear masks in indoor public settings, regardless of whether they've been vaccinated.

The agency has faced criticism throughout the day for a variety of reasons, including the fact that some experts think the latest messaging is off-base when it comes to the cause of the latest wave of infections. For instance, Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a medical analyst for CNN, took issue with the CDC Director Rochelle Walensky's emphasis on the finding that "in rare occassions some vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant after vaccination may be contagious and spread the virus to others." Walensky said that "this new science is worrisome and unfortunately warrants an update to our recommendation."

But Reiner thinks the CDC is downplaying the real issue the U.S. is facing: the high number of unvaccinated adults. In other words, he's arguing the messaging should be centered around the need to get more people inoculated against the virus... (MORE - details)

New study says vaccines can't stop the delta variant alone
https://thehill.com/changing-america/wel...-the-delta

INTRO: A new study is emphasizing the importance of both vaccinations and mitigation measures such as masks and physical distancing to curb the spread of the coronavirus and stop the threat of new variants.

The research published in Nature Scientific Reports warns that vaccines alone will not stop the emergence of new coronavirus strains, and could actually accelerate the evolution of new variants that evade their protection if safety measures like masking are stopped prematurely. 

According to the study, the virus will not stop changing until almost everyone has been fully vaccinated. “We found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain,” researchers from the Institute of Science and Technology Austria wrote in the study... (MORE)

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President Biden Steps Up Nationwide Vaccination Push
https://www.newsy.com/stories/president-...tion-push/

TRANSCRIPT: The White House is taking a carrot-and-stick approach.

Momentum is starting to grow to get more Americans vaccinated and stop the spread of the more infectious Delta variant.

President Biden is requiring around 4 million federal workers and contractors to be fully vaccinated, or mask up and face weekly COVID testing. He also wants the Pentagon to develop a plan to require the COVID vaccine to serve in the military. And the president wants local and state governments to offer cash payments of $100 for people to get the shots.

President Biden says this isn't about politics. 

“This is not about red states and blue states. It's literally about life and death. It's about life and death," he said. "That's what it's about. You know, I know people talk about freedom. But I learned growing up, school and my parents, with freedom comes responsibility.”

Meanwhile, thousands of state employees in the democratic-led states of California, New York and North Carolina are facing vaccine requirements. But Republican governors are trying to be more hands-off. 

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said Thursday he won't impose statewide mandates. But he has declared a public health emergency. 

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Biden snaps at Fox News reporter Peter Doocy following vaccination announcement
https://nypost.com/2021/07/29/biden-snap...ouncement/

INTRO: President Biden and Fox News White House correspondent Peter Doocy had a heated exchange Thursday at the end of a speech in which Biden announced a vax-or-test-mask-and-distance requirement for millions of federal workers.

As Biden left the podium in the East Room of the White House, Doocy reminded the president that he had said, “if you are fully vaccinated, you no longer need to wear a mask.”

“No I didn’t say that,” Biden responded. “I said if you’re fully vaccinated in an area where you do not have – well, let me clarify that –“

Doocy interrupted to clarify his question: “In May, you made it sound like a vaccine was the ticket to losing the masks forever.”

“That was true at the time!” a visibly agitated president shot back. “Because I thought there were people who were going to understand that getting vaccinated made a gigantic difference. What happened was, a new variant came along, they didn’t get vaccinated, it was spread more rapidly, and more people were getting sick. That’s the difference.”

Biden then turned on his heel and made his way out of the room, without donning a mask... (MORE)

What's behind people's hesitancy towards vaccination?
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-07-p...ation.html

RELEASE: In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes essential to understand why people refuse or indefinitely delay vaccination. A new Polish study, conducted at the Jagiellonian University (Krakow, Poland) and the SWPS University of Social Sciences and Humanities (Wroclaw, Poland) and published in the journal Social Psychological Bulletin, brings up the impact of the active spread of attention-grabbing anti-vaccine arguments, as well as the overall distrust in the Big Pharma, science and health providers.

In their study, using data from a total of 492 participants, who have self-identified as either ambiguous towards or opposing vaccination, the research team, led by Dr. Katarzyna Stasiuk, conclude that vaccine deniers are mostly led by a generalized negative attitude to vaccines.

The arguments were collected during a conference, where people opposing the vaccination presented their stand on the subject. Curiously, even though they often reported their stance to be founded in their own or observed negative experience with vaccines, when asked about their reasoning, they were rather vague in their explanations. Many reported that they didn't remember the source of information, while others attributed autism, allergies or children being sick to vaccines, despite the missing evidence of correlation.

Such instances can be explained with people's tendency to remember negative reports, even if those have simply been read online.

"Confirmation bias consists of an individual actively seeking information consistent with their pre-existing hypothesis, and avoiding information indicative of alternative explanations," say the researchers. "Therefore, a pre-existing negative attitude toward vaccines may cause individuals to interpret negative symptoms as consequences of vaccines, further reinforcing the negative attitude."

The research team also reminds that when given similar information from multiple sources, people tend to forget how they have learned it, often confusing it with their own experience or those of their close ones. As a result, they could turn into yet another source of misinformation.

All in all, vaccine deniers believe that vaccines lead to serious negative side effects, don't protect the individual and the society against infectious diseases, and are not sufficiently tested before introduction. Further, they are convinced that anti-vaccination leaders are better informed about vaccines than physicians, and that it is rather the former that act in the public interest.

Interestingly, when compared to the group who self-reported as vaccine-hesitant, opponents of vaccines were more inclined to believe that modern medicine is able to handle an epidemic.

Meanwhile, the vaccine-ambiguous participants in the survey were mostly confident in the efficacy of vaccines, as well as them being properly researched. However, they were still susceptible to the anti-vaccine movement's statements about side effects and the "Big Pharma conspiracy". Moreover, if presented with well-prepared arguments, they are likely to become vaccine deniers.

In conclusion, the scientists note that existing evidence is quite pessimistic about the possibility of changing the attitudes of vaccine opponents, and thus recommend that efforts need to be focused on persuading the vaccine-ambiguous group, so that their concerns about negative effects are reduced. They also suggest that they need to be presented with prosocial arguments about why medical professionals recommend vaccines, in order to strengthen the positive points of their attitude.

I agree that Covid messaging is terrible.

For one thing, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense, to me anyway. It appears to be hugely inconsistent.

The latest panic (and this is all about fear) is that the 'Delta variant' will infect people who are vaccinated, so called 'breakthrough infections'. The question that I have is how many of these 'breakthrough infections' are there? How prevalent are they? There doesn't seem to be any good information on that. (Why not?)

If they are common, then the vaccines don't work as advertised and all the rhetoric about how everyone has to become vaccinated, vaccine passports, the civil liberties restrictions for those who aren't vaccinated, and the scathing denunciations of so-called "antivaxxers", the whole neofascist drumbeat starts to fall apart. It's ironic that people were recently being banned from social media for criticizing the vaccines' effectiveness (and remain banned for so-called "covid disinformation"), while suddenly it's the federal government saying almost exactly the same things and we are all suddenly supposed to stand at attention and salute.

If 'breakthrough infections' are rare, if the vaccines do work in the great majority of cases, then why all the recent media/government efforts to instill fear? Isn't all this what we (and they) should have expected? Weren't the medical experts talking about the vaccines being very good, 95% effective (or whatever it was)? Suggesting right there that they wouldn't be effective in a few cases? So a small number of 'breakthrough infections' were always expected. Why all the media and government stoked panic now? Why all the insistence that the vaccinated must "mask up" once again? (And this time remain muzzled forever?) What medical purpose does it serve?

Either way, the rhetoric seems to contradict itself, it seems to me.

While cases do seem to be increasing somewhat here in California, deaths aren't. Deaths are remaining low. The great majority of people who are still contracting covid are unvaccinated and they are a much younger population than the elderly nursing home residents that were dying in large numbers early in the epidemic. Most of these new illnesses are rather minor, like a bad case of the flu. Hospitalizations are few. Intensive care units even in large urban hospitals are only seeing a handful of covid patients.

From the actual evidence, the disease seem to be increasingly minor. Certainly less worrisome than cancer or heart disease. So the question then becomes what would an appropriate government response be? Taking away everyone's civil liberties and shutting down the economy?

I don't think that the cure should be more devastating than the disease. As the Hippocratic oaths says, "First, do no harm".

Quote:The question that I have is how many of these 'breakthrough infections' are there? How prevalent are they? There doesn't seem to be any good information on that. (Why not?)

Less than 1 percent of the vaccinated have a breakthru case of covid. That was announced on the news today (see below). That's pretty low. I don't think it's anything to worry about. Even among those vaccinated who come down with it show no symptoms or only mild ones.

"less than 0.004% of fully vaccinated people had a breakthrough case that led to hospitalization and less than 0.001% of fully vaccinated people died from a breakthrough Covid-19 case.
Most of the breakthrough cases -- about 74% -- occurred among adults 65 or older."---
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/31/health/fu...index.html

What Delta has changed in the Covid pandemic — and what it hasn’t
https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/23/burn...-pandemic/

INTRO: In some respects, the Delta variant has changed everything in the Covid-19 pandemic. In others, the same rules still apply... (MORE)

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What should I know about the delta variant?
https://apnews.com/article/science-healt...71b7990fe6

INTRO: It’s the most contagious coronavirus mutant so far in the pandemic, but COVID-19 vaccines still provide strong protection against it. Nearly all hospitalizations and deaths are among the unvaccinated.

Still, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cited the delta’s surge for its updated advice that fully vaccinated people return to wearing masks indoors in areas with high transmission. The change is based on recent research suggesting that vaccinated people who get infected with the delta variant can spread it to others, even if the vaccinated don’t get seriously ill.

The new guidance helps protect the unvaccinated, including children who aren’t yet eligible for the shots, and others who are at high-risk for serious illness if infected... (MORE)

40% of wild deer have coronavirus antibodies: study
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/202...new-study/

INTRO: Scientists have found that 40% of wild deer in parts of the U.S. had neutralizing antibodies for the coronavirus, suggesting COVID-19 spread from humans in what is reportedly the first documentation of widespread exposure to the virus in free-roaming animals.

Researchers from the U.S. Department of Agriculture studied 624 pre- and post-pandemic serum samples from wild deer in five U.S. states for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and detected antibodies in 152 samples — 40% — from 2021.

“SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans, can infect multiple domestic and wild animal species. Thus, the possibility exists for the emergence of new animal reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2, each with unique potential to maintain, disseminate, and drive novel evolution of this virus,” the authors wrote in their study, published in bioRxiv last week. “Of particular concern are wildlife species that are both abundant and live in close association with human populations.” (MORE)

Biden administration has plans to require most foreign visitors to be vaccinated.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/04/world...nated.html

INTRO: The Biden administration is developing plans to require all foreign travelers to the United States to be vaccinated against Covid-19, with limited exceptions, according to an administration official with knowledge of the developing policy.

The plan, first reported by Reuters, will be part of a new system to be put in place after the current restrictions on travel into the country are lifted, but officials have yet to determine when that might be done.

President Biden has been under pressure for months to ease restrictions on people wishing to travel to the United States, particularly as other countries, including England, Scotland and Canada, relax their own measures.

But White House officials have said in recent days that there is no plan to lift current restrictions anytime soon, in light of the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant.

“Given where we are today,” Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, told reporters last week, “with the Delta variant, we will maintain existing travel restrictions at this point.”

That stance was reiterated on Wednesday evening by White House officials who said that there was no timetable yet for requiring foreign travelers to be inoculated.

“The interagency working groups are working to develop a plan for a consistent and safe international travel policy, in order to have a new system ready for when we can reopen travel,” the administration official, who was not authorized to publicly detail the plan, wrote in an email. “This includes a phased approach that over time will mean, with limited exceptions, that foreign nationals traveling to the United States (from all countries) need to be fully vaccinated.”

Travelers from Iran, China, Brazil, the United Kingdom, South Africa, India, the Republic of Ireland and Europe’s Schengen area — spanning 29 countries, city-states and micro-states — are currently barred from entering the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control, unless they are a U.S. citizen or they spend 14 days before arrival in a country that is not on that list... (MORE)

WHO calls for a stop to COVID vaccine boosters, as rich countries roll them out
https://www.sciencealert.com/who-calls-f...-countries

INTRO: As some countries struggle to get first doses of COVID-19 vaccines to their most vulnerable, other nations are already moving ahead with plans to offer supplementary "booster" shots. On Wednesday, the World Health Organization called for a moratorium on COVID-19 vaccine boosters through the end of September or later, citing global inequalities in the vaccine rollout.

The statement came hours after a San Francisco hospital began offering "supplemental doses" of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines to Johnson & Johnson recipients – following the lead of countries like Israel, which is already offering Pfizer boosters to elderly people, and European countries, planning to start boosters next month.

About 29 percent of the world's population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, but that number is close to 1 percent in low-income countries, according to Our World in Data. "I understand the concern of all governments to protect their people from the Delta variant. But we cannot accept countries that have already used most of the global supply of vaccines using even more of it," director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Wednesday... (MORE)

Here's some (sorta) credible information about the prevalence of 'breakthrough infections'.

The CDC says:

"Vaccine breakthrough cases are expected. COVID-19 vaccines are effective and are a critical tool to bring the pandemic under control. However, no vaccines are 100% effective at preventing illness in vaccinated people. There will be a small percentage of fully vaccinated people who still get sick, are hospitalized, or die from COVID-19...

More than 163 million people in the United States have been fully vaccinated as of July 26, 2021. Like with other vaccines, vaccine breakthrough cases will occur, even though the vaccines are working as expected. Asymptomatic infections among vaccinated people will also occur."

OK, so how many 'breakthrough cases' have there actually been?

From the same CDC document:

"As of July 26, 2021, more than 163 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. During the same time, CDC received reports from 49 U.S.states and territories of 6,587 patients with COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infection who were hospitalized or died."

And 1,219 of these cases were asymptomatic cases discovered by positive tests in people hospitalized for reasons unrelated to Covid!

There were 1,263 reported breakthrough deaths. 1,263/163 million = .0000077 or a 1/129,365 chance of a vaccinated person dying of covid! What's more, 3/4'ths of these deaths were over 65, so younger people would have significantly better odds than that (if that's possible).

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/he...D7wpaBOhOk

Compare the 1,263 breakthrough Covid deaths to 5,251 deaths due to influenza in 2015 (the last year for which data for all causes of death are available). So even if we double the number of Covid deaths to correct for the fact that only about half the US population is currently vaccinated, it still appears that a fully vaccinated individual has less (about half) chance of dying of Covid than an average American has of dying of the flu in a normal year. There are flu vaccinations too, but people aren't panicking because they aren't perfect and because new flu variants appear every year. People aren't trying to destroy the middle class and mainstreet business, eliminate normal civil liberties and force everyone to wear muzzles due to the flu.

There were no less than 37,757 deaths in 2015 from automobile accidents! So it's safe to say that the average vaccinated individual has something like 1/15th the likelihood of dying from Covid as he or she has of dying from driving or riding in a car. So why aren't our wonderful leaders outlawing all use of automobiles?

2,187 people died in 2015 of complications of medical and surgical procedures. Maybe we should outlaw medicine as well.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/dvs/LCWK10_2015.pdf