Israel-Gaza War (and Iranian Distractions)

[Syne]

Yeah, I've seen quite a few stories about Iran looking to make a major attack, through proxies.
I think Israel has already said it would retaliate by striking Iran's nuclear facilities... which they need to do sooner or later anyway.

[Yazata]

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that America is moving "at least" two Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers close to the Israeli coast where they can help provide air defense cover with their surface to air missiles.

And "a number" of USAF F-15E jets have departed RAF Lakenheath in England headed to an undisclosed location in the Middle East.

The Israeli Home Front Command along with the Health Ministry have ordered all Israeli hospitals and clinics to have emergency personnel on standby.

Iran has sent an official diplomatic message to the US via Switzerland (who serve as an intermediary since the US and Iran have no diplomatic relations) telling America not to get involved on Israel's side. If we do, Iran says they will attack US troops and bases all across the region.

[Yazata]

Melanie Joly, the Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs, says -

"With a heightened risk of attacks on Israeli territory, the regional security situation remains highly volatile & could escalate without notice.
We have increased our risk level to “avoid all travel” to Israel+West Bank.
Canadians should consider leaving by commercial means."

https://travel.gc.ca/destinations/israel...gaza-strip

And General Abbas Nilforushan, the Deputy Commander of Operations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran has just Posted this Image with the Caption: “The Zionist Regime has made a Mistake by Attacking the Iranian Consulate. He should be Punished and he will be Punished.”

https://twitter.com/Nilforushan_ir/statu...6591090715

[Image: GK_cqkhXwAE4Deu?format=jpg&name=small]

ns

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The UK royal navy says it has no plans to conduct air defense operations off the Israeli coast.

[Syne]

Iran is always saber-rattling. They know if they do anything that can be tied directly back to Iran, Israel will use that as justified excuse to destroy their nuclear capability.
I seriously doubt Iran wants to risk that. So it's more than likely just a bluff.

[Yazata]

An Israeli Defense Force spokesman says that "dozens" of long-range attack drones have launched from Iran and are currently crossing Iraqi airspace presumably headed for Israel. He says that it will take hours for them to reach Israel.

The expectation in Israel seems to be that Iran will launch ballistic missiles timed to synchronize with the arrival of the drones.

Israel is evacuating military bases and launching aircraft to avoid them becoming targets.

[C C]

An Israeli Defense Force spokesman says that "dozens" of long-range attack drones have launched from Iran and are currently crossing Iraqi airspace presumably headed for Israel. He says that it will take hours for them to reach Israel.

The expectation in Israel seems to be that Iran will launch ballistic missiles timed to synchronize with the arrival of the drones.

Israel is evacuating military bases and launching aircraft to avoid them becoming targets.

Saturday the 13th. Seems as good a time as any to get some WWIII gravel trickling down the hill. Will the protestors be waving pro-Iranian flags in the streets after this?

[Yazata]

Israeli jets are reported to be intercepting drones over Syrian airspace. Syria has put its air defenses on alert. Israeli aircraft are reportedly above Jordanian airspace as well.

The IRGC has named their attack on Israel 'Operation True Promise'

There have been three waves of drones so far, totalling at least 100-150, perhaps more.

The Israeli war cabinet is meeting. An Israeli counter attack against Iran is expected in coming hours. Israel expects several days of fighting with Iran.

Lebanon has closed its airspace to all commercial flights. Update: Israel, Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran have also closed their airspace to commercial traffic.

There are very unconfirmed claims that US aircraft are above Jordan and Syria hunting drones. (This might not be true, I kind of doubt it.)

Iranian land-attack cruise missiles have been observed travelling west over Iraq.

ns

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The Israeli military says that the Iranians appear to only be targeting Israeli military facilities at present. They say that the first drones should arrive in about 20 minutes.

American defense officials say that they expect about 400 drones and missiles in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. The officials say that they expect Israeli counter attacks to hit military targets in Iran.

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Ballistic missiles may have been launched from Iran. What appear to be rocket exhaust plumes seen moving west over Iraq.

[Yazata]

Israelis in several parts of the country are being told to head to shelters.

Marco Rubio (who is on the senate intelligence committee) says that it now appears the Iranian attack is bigger than American intelligence predicted.

Things very quiet in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Calm before the storm.

The IDF says that more than 100 drones have been shot down outside Israeli airspace. This out of several hundred in total.

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Iran's UN delegation says

"Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!"

https://twitter.com/Iran_UN/status/1779269993043022053

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Israeli air defense missiles are launching all over Israel, so the drones/missiles have arrived. One of the Israeli sites being targeted is Dimona, the Israeli nuclear weapons site.

There is some confirmation coming in that the US has downed some of the drones. Unclear if it was American ships or planes that did it, but US forces are engaged in the battle, it appears.

There's still nothing about damage in Israel. Live-cams in Tel Aviv show no explosions except for surface to air missiles hitting targets in the air.

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Reports that aircraft of the Royal Jordanian Air Force have shot down more than a dozen Iranian drones over Jordan. There's video of what appear to be multiple interceptions over Amman Jordan.

Video is emerging from inside Iran showing medium range ballistic missiles launching from near Tabriz Iran, and separate video showing what appear to be the missiles passing over Iraq.

[Yazata]

Israeli interceptor rockets over the Knesset (parliament) building in Jerusalem.

[Image: GLFOC1FXcAA-1oA?format=jpg&name=900x900]

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First report of an Israeli casualty, a 10 year old girl in the Beersheva area hit by falling debris and seriously injured.

From the looks of early reports, the greater Beersheva area was the main area targeted. It is surrounded by military bases of various sorts, including two of Israel's largest air force bases. The nuclear weapons research and manufacturing center is maybe 15 miles east. Beersheva is one of the top Israeli high-tech centers (IAI, Elbit etc.) There's video showing at least half a dozen drones striking what appears to be the same location on the ground, so they were clearly targeting something important.

The American embassy in Jerusalem is in shelter-in-place mode.

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The IDF has just announced that there were about 200 drones, ballistic and cruise missiles so far, but the attack is ongoing. They claim that they and their international partners (apparently America and Jordan so far, though nothing official on that) have intercepted the majority of them.

The main location targeted was indeed Nevatim Airbase outside Beersheva. This base may or may not be an Israeli nuclear base where nuclear capable aircraft operate and nuclear weapons are stored. The IDF says that damage at the base is minimal and there are no military casualties, which may or may not be true. (If it was devastated, we wouldn't expect them to admit it.)

The US appears to be fully engaged and reportedly has shot down "dozens" of Iranian missiles and drones.

[Yazata]

The Iranian attack against Israel appears to be concluding. First impressions might be misleading, but it appears that Israel withstood the onslaught better than anyone (certainly me) expected. There was no serious damage to Israeli cities and no widespread loss of civilian life, as everyone feared. Damage to military bases is said (by the Israelis) to be relatively minor. (I'm less sure of that.) The Israeli air defense performed spectacularly well. I'm sure the American air defenses that were helping Israel (the navy destroyers and the F-15's) performed equally well. Even the Jordanian air force performed well, downing many drones that passed near their capital of Amman.

Attention shifts to what Israel will do in reply. I believe that Washington DC is arguing for restraint. But the Israelis are plenty mad and I would guess they go big.

Ever defiant, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has put out a new message:

"The terrorist government of America is warned that any support and participation in harming Iran's interests will result in a decisive and regretful response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Also, America is responsible for the evil actions of the Zionist regime, and if this child-killing regime is not curbed in the region, it must accept its consequences.

While emphasizing the policy of good neighborliness with neighbors and countries in the region, it is stated that any threat by the terrorist state of America and the Zionist regime from any country will be followed by a reciprocal and proportional response from the Islamic Republic of Iran to the source of the threat.

We assure the heroic nation of Iran that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other armed forces of the country will stand to the death in defense of national interests and will neutralize the enemies' efforts to disrupt the security and peace of the people.”