Military Action in Sudan

[Yazata]

For the last week or so, the African country of Sudan has been torn by civil war. The combatants are the regular Sudanese military commanded by a general who styles himself president of Sudan. They are opposed by a semi-official militia called the Rapid Support Forces.

The previous Sudanese president was overthrown by the general supported by the RSF. So once he took power the new president had to recognize the RSF as an official reserve force. And the army general and the RSF boss have been political rivals ever since.

A week or so ago that erupted into open warfare. The RSF control a couple of provinces and siezed the Khartoum international airport, the presidential palace and a number of other important sites in the capital. The army controls most provinces and still controls much of the capital. Basically the situation is very confused and it isn't clear who controls what.

So all the locals are staying indoors and keeping their heads down, as fighting erupts in the streets. This includes 16,000-19,000 US citizens (most of them US-Sudan dual citizens), 250 French, 150 Germans, 60 Japanese, and several dozen South Koreans and British. There are also many Chinese, Saudis and others from places in the middle east like the United Arab Emirates.

The Chinese and Saudis are both conducting a sea-borne evacuation from Port Sudan in the Red Sea, apparently spearheaded by the Saudi Arabian navy. Chinese ships are involved too. The difficulty with this is transporting evacuees by convoy hundreds of miles from the capital to the port. Americans in Sudan are being advised by the US embassy that neither side in the civil war has offered security guarantees for the convoys and US nationals are being advised not to join them and instead to shelter in place.

Well, it looks like a major international intervention force is gathering in Djibouti. Some 15 USAF C-17 transports have departed from US Army bases headed for Djibouti in the last few days with some of them carrying what appear to be Special Operations forces. Combined with other US troops in the area, it looks like a force of perhaps a thousand US soldiers is gathering. Approximately 100 British soldiers have flown out, along with some 300 Japanese soldiers. Additional aircraft from Germany, Belgium, Sweden and South Korea have taken off for Djibouti.

Expect military action in the next few days. The general/president in command of the Sudanese army says that he has been informed that an evacuation of foreigners will soon begin from the international airport, which is probably fine with him since it is currently held by the RSF.

The international force will probably take the Khartoum airport from the RSF, which might involve an airborne assault and some fighting since the airport is the RSF's strongpoint in the capital that they probably don't want to lose. And then the operation might escort foreign nationals there to be flown out.

US military flights to Djibouti in the last few days

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Saudi warship involved in their evacuation effort.

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[Yazata]

Multiple reports are coming in that American UH 60 helicopters have landed at the US Embassy in Khartoum and have reportedly evacuated some or all of its staff. It's unknown where the embassy evacuees were taken, but given that Djibouti is 1000 miles away and beyond a Blackhawk's range, the helicopters must be operating from some forward location inside Sudan.

Edit - The US military has successfully completed the evacuation of the US Embassy in Khartoum.

Statement by Biden:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room...-in-sudan/

I really hope that the operation isn't already over. It would be bad if the US Embassy advised US nationals in Sudan not to try to leave but to shelter in place, then hours later the same embassy bugs out.

Warmapper's latest map of Khartoum

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[Yazata]

Update: Latest reports are that the embassy evacuation was performed by 3 CH-47 Chinook helicopters, not the Blackhawks as previously reported. These large helicopters flew from Djibouti to Khartoum and back again across Ethiopia, where they evidently refueled, since the trip exceeds a Chinook's range. (That's probably why Biden thanked Ethiopia in his remarks.)

About 70 embassy staff were evacuated. The helicopters spent less than an hour on the ground in Khartoum. And they did not come under fire when this was happening and there were no injuries. As many as 3 AC-130J Ghostriders accompanied them for support but didn't need to fire.

Apart from the embassy evacuation, which seems to have been performed flawlessly, things are very confused.

France has announced its own evacuation operation by air from Khartoum. The French say both opposing sides in the civil war have promised safety for the French flights, but apparently no French aircraft have been seen in Khartoum.

The US navy is moving ships from the Persian Gulf region to the Red Sea off Port Sudan in order to conduct a seaborne evacuation similar to the one the Saudis and Chinese have been successfully doing. Supposedly all kinds of American intelligence operatives are trying to arrange safe-passage for convoys of evacuees along the long road trip from the capital to the port. I don't think that an air evacuation from Khartoum airport is off the table either, but that seemingly depends on agreements by the combatants not to fire on it. Conflicting reports on how successful this has been.

Apart from the embassy evacuation (entirely an American operation) there haven't been any obvious military movements in Djibouti, apart from a Spanish airforce A400M transport and a US C-130 arriving.

[Yazata]

The French Armee de l'Air appears to have landed a pair of A400M transports in Khartoum and have extracted their embassy staff and assorted French citizens that wanted to leave.

https://twitter.com/CEMA_FR/status/1650182893786783747

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[Yazata]

Jordanian air force C-130s arriving in Amman Jordan after evacuating Jordanians (and probably some others like Lebanese).

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And it's not just Jordanian planes flying into Amman. Dutch and German planes are refueling there, before flying back home.

German Luftwaffe A-400M arriving in Amman.

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And 3 Spanish air force A-400M aircraft have evacuated Spanish nationals gathered at Wadi Seidna air base a short distance north of Khartoum. Seeing as how the RSF rebels control the Khartoum international airport, this Sudanese government air base might be where other evacuation flights are flying in and out of as well. These Spanish planes are operating out of Djibouti.

There are reports that British and Canadian evacuations are underway as well, but there are no details about them.

There are thousands of US nationals in Sudan, but nothing much has happened yet to extract them.

[Yazata]

It's interesting that in February, the current Sudanese government agreed to allow the Russians to build a naval base in Port Sudan.

In April, a civil war breaks out in hopes of overthrowing that government.

And predictably, cnn is claiming that the RSF rebels are colluding with Russia, hoping to overthrow the government that gave the Russians permission to build the base. (Something that the US opposes.)

[Yazata]

Still no attempt to extract Americans trapped in Sudan, even after most of our allies have done so for their own citizens. The only evacuation so far was the embassy and its staff.

[C C]

Still no attempt to extract Americans trapped in Sudan, even after most of our allies have done so for their own citizens. The only evacuation so far was the embassy and its staff.

Apparently that's going to be it... And supposedly fits the "normal" pattern for this sort of thing.

Why the US Evacuation from Sudan Left Americans Behind
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023...ehind.html

EXCERPTS: The State Department, which has advised U.S. citizens for years not to travel to Sudan, continues to advise Americans to shelter in place. Most of the estimated 16,000 Americans believed to be in Sudan right now are dual U.S.-Sudanese nationals and only a fraction of them have expressed a desire to leave.

But at least some of those who want to leave have managed to get to Port Sudan where they can take a ferry to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, or have gotten seats on flights operated by other countries.

[...] American citizens who get to Port Sudan overland and can take a ferry to Jeddah will be assisted by the U.S. consulate there. Right now, the U.S. assistance for Americans is largely limited to phone and virtual help.

[...] While many Americans may recall the dramatic 2021 evacuation of diplomats and private citizens alike from Afghanistan, those circumstances were far different. In most cases, the U.S. does not evacuate private citizens when it closes an embassy.

The situation in Afghanistan was different because the U.S. was ending a 20-year military presence in the country. It was trying to extricate the residual American presence there, much of which was directly tied to Washington’s role in propping up the Afghan government. No such situation existed or exists in Sudan.

More typical has been the practice in places like Yemen, Syria and Venezuela, where the U.S. suspended diplomatic operations and removed personnel because of turmoil, but did not evacuate private citizens.

[...] the U.S. has warned Americans for several years not to travel to Sudan and told them that consular assistance at the embassy was extremely limited.

[Yazata]

It's been out of the news recently, replaced by Ukraine and then Israel, but the civil war in Sudan is still going strong. Map of the current situation by Thomas Van Linge.

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[Yazata]

The civil war in Sudan continues, without a lot of change since November. The Sudan armed forces still have the upper hand in the east half of the country, though I get the impression that their position is slowly deteriorating. The RSF rebels and several spinoff rebel militias have the upper hand in the west half and have moved the battle to the center, where they are gradually expanding. The capital of Khartoum continues to be contested.

I'm surprised that outside powers haven't entered into the power vacuum. But I guess the US's hands are full with Ukraine and Israel, Russia obviously has all that it can handle with Ukraine. Europe is a geopolitical nonentity. Which pretty much leaves China. China has been increasing its economic ties with the recognized government (the Sudan armed forces' military dictatorship) but so far has been reluctant to introduce Chinese military forces. (Probably a good decision on their part.) Neighboring Egypt and Saudi Arabia are keeping their hands off too, while their attention is focused on Gaza, Iran and the Houthis.

So this is likely to continue for a long time.

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